BETA IS FORECAST MAINLY TO BE AT T.S. STRENGTH
Additional Information
From the "discussion" section of the Sunday night 11 PM advisory:
The tropical storm is located between a mid-level ridge over Florida and another ridge over the Southern Plains. Beta should move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast
of Texas during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge
over the Plains should weaken allowing the ridge to the east to
steer Beta northward, and then northeastward near the Upper-Texas
coast by mid-week. With the recent westward jog, the new track
forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous track
through 24 hours, but is slightly east of the previous advisory
thereafter to be closer to the various consensus aids.
From the National Hurricane Center:
Key Messages:
1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.
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COMPUTER MODELS GO CRAZY
(These models were produced several days ago and have since settled into a more regular pattern.)
The computer models at the left, called spaghetti models because of the various crossing lines they predict, show CONFUSION. Face it, no one has any clear idea where this storm might go. Since it became a named storm (Beta) the Hurricane Center is obligated to say where it is likely to go but with this kind of confusion from the computer models, won't they just be guessing? They need to add up 5+9+3 and make it come out to 48. In other words, they need, through their long experience, to decide which direction is more likely because of the dominant influence on the storm. In a situation such as they, everyone should be ready to get ready.
TEDDY FORECAST TO MISS A DIRECT HIT ON BERMUDA
HURRICANE WINDS PREDICTED NEAR EASTERN CANADA
From the National Hurricane Center:
Key Messages:
1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late
Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday
evening.
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
From the "discussion" section of the NHC forecast:
The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern
overnight into a central dense overcast this morning. Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane
has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps
generously. The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a
large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the
northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi.
A visual news story
The Washington Post has an excellent visual presentation of photos of the impact of Hurricane Sally. Click below to go to the Post.
at left: Rescue crew in Houston, 2017, following Hurricane Harvey
Satellite photo, after the storm
Grand Lake, La., where at least dozens of houses were inundated with water (perhaps more) was one of the hardest hit by storm surge. At the left, Grand Lake H.S. with parts of houses/barns,etc, scattered across fields.
image@MaxarTechnologies